31.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 33.4 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 29.7
+3.1 opponent leak — they concede 1851.3/game vs a 1686.6 league average
−3.8 at this ground — averages 28.1 there (7 gm)
vs them: averages 36.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o33.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (73%)🌬 16.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Harrisonvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
33.4
17
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Harrison 33.4/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
23
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Harrison 0.6/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
22.8
69
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Harrison 22.8/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
46
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Harrison 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
61
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Harrison 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
45
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Harrison 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
48
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Harrison 0.3/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
7.8
15
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Harrison 7.8/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Harrison33.4
17
GLD1851.3
94
Harrison 33.4/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Harrison0.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Run Metres
1851.3per game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At McDonald Jones Stadium28.1(7)+3.5
Everywhere else24.6(23)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)21.3(4)-4.8
Dry games26.1(26)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Run Metres
Avg diff
+26.5
Avg diff %
+76%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-01WARSam Healey35.838+6%
07-26SGIKyle Flanagan36.462+70%
07-26SGIJacob Liddle36.143+19%
07-26SGIJacob Halangahu32.774+126%
07-12MELTrent Toelau29.90-100%
06-20PENJack Cogger33.1132+298%
05-23MANBlake Wilson34.1119+249%
05-02CBROwen Pattie30.212-60%
Similar = season average within ±5.0 of Harrison's. Computed from this app's own records.