27.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 27.7 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 26.1
−3.4 opponent leak — they concede 475.8/game vs a 544.2 league average
−1.7 at this ground — averages 25.4 there (22 gm)
vs them: averages 20.4 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▼venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SYD concede · Post Contact Metres
475.8per game · league avg 544.2
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At CommBank Stadium25.4(22)-2.3
Everywhere else27.7(91)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)17.7(3)-9.9
Dry games27.5(110)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SYD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-5.8
Avg diff %
-18%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07CBYLachlan Galvin27.015-44%
08-07CBYHarry Hayes23.633+40%
08-07CBYBronson Xerri30.90-100%
07-30NQLCoen Hess30.515-51%
07-30NQLZac Laybutt27.418-34%
07-30NQLJaxon Purdue28.77-76%
07-24NEWMat Croker28.138+35%
07-24NEWFletcher Sharpe27.651+85%
Similar = season average within ±4.2 of Luke's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5