• 71.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 72.5 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 69.2
• −7.0 opponent leak — they concede 1519.7/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• −6.7 at this ground — averages 64.5 there (22 gm)
• vs them: averages 47.6 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 173 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.