• 1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 19.7/game vs a 23.7 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 1.1 there (28 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.