0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4.8/game vs a 4.2 league average
+0.1 at this ground — averages 0.2 there (6 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 0.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 17°C☂ 0.3mm (64%)🌬 16.5 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Francisvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
45.4
24
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Francis 45.4/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
45
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Francis 1.2/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.8
42
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Francis 13.8/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Francis 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
81
Try Assistsfavorable
75
4.0
Francis 0.3/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
77
Line Breaksfavorable
63
5.2
Francis 0.4/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
61
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Francis 0.5/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
16.9
32
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Francis 16.9/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Francis45.4
24
GLD1851.3
94
Francis 45.4/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Francis1.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Tries
4.8per game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tries
At McDonald Jones Stadium0.2(6)+0.2
Everywhere else0.0(10)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(2)-0.1
Dry games0.1(14)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs GLD · Tries
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-17%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLTom Chester0.40-100%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue0.31+200%
08-06NQLBraidon Burns0.80-100%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt0.10-100%
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi0.70-100%
08-06NQLJake Clifford0.41+163%
08-06NQLScott Drinkwater0.40-100%
08-06NQLGriffin Neame0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Francis's. Computed from this app's own records.