• 8.6 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 219.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +1.4 at this ground — averages 10 there (10 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.