• 1.6 baseline — his last 7 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 87/game vs a 93.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.