• 5.4 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 87/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 5.3 there (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 24: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.