• 0.9 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 11.8/game vs a 12.2 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 0.4 there (44 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.3 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.