• 7.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.3 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.3
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 377.9/game vs a 369 league average
• −0.8 at this ground — averages 6.5 there (16 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.