• 1.5 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 64.3/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 1.7 there (34 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.3 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.