• 11.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 12.2 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 11.0
• +0.7 opponent leak — they concede 225.5/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −2.6 at this ground — averages 9.1 there (58 gm)
• vs them: averages 13.0 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.