• 4.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.5 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.1
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 157/game vs a 155.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 3.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.