• 6.0 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 201.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 5.8 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.5 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.