• 2.4 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• +0.6 opponent leak — they concede 117.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.3 at this ground — averages 2.7 there (7 gm)
• wet forecast: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 5.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.