• 2.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.5 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 6 2.5
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 82.5/game vs a 93.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.