• 10.3 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 369.9/game vs a 369 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 15.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 20 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.