• 0.5 baseline — his last 4 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 15.7/game vs a 12.8 league average
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.