• 1.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.6 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 1.4
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 8.8/game vs a 12.2 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.