• 3.0 baseline — his last 6 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 153.7/game vs a 155.4 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.