from 24.0 baseline, −0.4 opponent leak

• 24.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 23.3 (23 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 25.0
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 182.6/game vs a 186.1 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 17.5 there against the player's own 17.1 in those same seasons — 101% of that level (52 gm)
• vs them: averages 22.3 over 6 games — 130% of the player's own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 11 — far outside the usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.