5.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.7 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.6
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 192.3/game vs a 186.3 league average
vs them: averages 11.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o4.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11.5°C☂ 2.1mm (100%)🌬 16.5 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Simionevs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
41.8
22
Run Metresneutral
50
1698.3
Simione 41.8/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
17
Tackle Breaksneutral
56
33.3
Simione 0.4/game
MEL concedes 33.3/game · league avg 32.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
10.4
32
Tacklesunfavorable
25
338.1
Simione 10.4/game
MEL concedes 338.1/game · league avg 344.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
69
4.5
Simione 0.0/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.1
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Simione 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
94
6.5
Simione 0.0/game
MEL concedes 6.5/game · league avg 5.1
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
40
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Simione 0.2/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.7
33
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
569.6
Simione 17.7/game
MEL concedes 569.6/game · league avg 545.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Simione41.8
22
MEL1698.3
50
Simione 41.8/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Simione0.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Runs
192.3per game · league avg 186.3
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else4.4(14)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games4.4(14)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MEL · Runs
Avg diff
+0.6
Avg diff %
+18%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31CBYKurt Mann6.13-51%
07-31CBYJosh Curran5.56+9%
07-24SOULiam Le Blanc3.36+83%
07-24SOUJohn Radel4.712+155%
07-24SOUJamie Humphreys5.24-23%
07-24SOUBrandon Smith5.47+31%
07-17SYDTommy Talau5.10-100%
07-17SYDSalesi Foketi5.98+37%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Simione's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5