• 16.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 13.8 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 19.6
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 1715.7/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• wet forecast: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 48.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 27: 72 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.