0.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.9 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 598.3/game vs a 544.2 league average
vs them: averages 7.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jaydenvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
8.3
3
Run Metresneutral
100
1914.7
Jayden 8.3/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
14
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.6
Jayden 0.3/game
SGI concedes 30.6/game · league avg 32.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
8.0
27
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Jayden 8.0/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
94
5.1
Jayden 0.0/game
SGI concedes 5.1/game · league avg 4.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Jayden 0.0/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Jayden 0.0/game
SGI concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Jayden 0.0/game
SGI concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
1
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
598.3
Jayden 0.9/game
SGI concedes 598.3/game · league avg 544.2
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jayden8.3
3
SGI1914.7
100
Jayden 8.3/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Jayden0.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Post Contact Metres
598.3per game · league avg 544.2
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.9(16)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games0.9(16)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+0.8
Avg diff %
+48%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CROMichael Gabrael0.000%
07-26GLDSam Verrills1.74+137%
07-04WSTCharlie Murray1.90-100%
06-28CBRChevy Stewart2.30-100%
06-28CBRJake Clydsdale0.000%
06-19NEWPhoenix Crossland1.711+547%
05-23WARKayliss Fatialofa0.000%
05-23WARLuke Hanson1.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jayden's. Computed from this app's own records.