8.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.3 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.5
+1.1 opponent leak — they concede 1925.5/game vs a 1687.8 league average
vs them: averages 32.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 32 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o8.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jaydenvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
8.3
3
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Jayden 8.3/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
14
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Jayden 0.3/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
8.0
27
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Jayden 8.0/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Jayden 0.0/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Jayden 0.0/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Jayden 0.0/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Jayden 0.0/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
1
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Jayden 0.9/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jayden8.3
3
SGI1925.5
100
Jayden 8.3/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Jayden0.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Run Metres
1925.5per game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else7.0(16)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games7.0(16)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Run Metres
Avg diff
+3.1
Avg diff %
+30%
Hit rate
2/3
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-26GLDSam Verrills9.511+16%
05-23WARLuke Hanson8.80-100%
03-29GLDSam Verrills9.526+174%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jayden's. Computed from this app's own records.