8.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.3 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.5
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 1715.2/game vs a 1686.6 league average
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 32 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CBR concede · Run Metres
1715.2per game · league avg 1686.6
#8 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At GIO Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else7.0(16)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games7.0(16)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs CBR · Run Metres
Avg diff
+34.6
Avg diff %
+413%
Hit rate
2/2
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
05-21DOLBrian Pouniu8.375+800%
05-02GLDSam Verrills9.512+26%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jayden's. Computed from this app's own records.