6.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.7 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.0
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 175.7/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 5.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o6.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Billyvs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
57.7
34
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Billy 57.7/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
30
Tackle Breaksneutral
81
34.4
Billy 0.7/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.9
55
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Billy 17.9/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
42
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Billy 0.1/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Billy 0.0/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
27
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Billy 0.1/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
30
Offloadsneutral
69
10.2
Billy 0.2/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
22.8
42
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Billy 22.8/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Billy57.7
34
WAR1543.0
13
Billy 57.7/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Billy0.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Runs
175.7per game · league avg 185.9
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Go Media Stadium3.0(1)-3.8
Everywhere else6.8(19)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)5.0(2)-1.8
Dry games6.8(18)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs WAR · Runs
Avg diff
+1.0
Avg diff %
+19%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENIzack Tago5.615+170%
08-07PENLuron Patea6.86-11%
08-01GLDCooper Bai7.47-5%
08-01GLDArama Hau6.74-40%
08-01GLDKlese Haas7.65-34%
08-01GLDZane Harrison7.513+73%
08-01GLDChris Randall7.15-29%
07-25CBYJosh Curran5.57+27%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Billy's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5