Only 1 game in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
6.6−8.9 vs your line
6.5 baseline — his last 8 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 548.9/game vs a 544.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 26: 24 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Rileyvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
40.0
21
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Riley 40.0/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.0
85
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Riley 3.0/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
6.0
22
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Riley 6.0/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Riley 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Riley 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Riley 0.0/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.0
86
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Riley 1.0/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
15.0
29
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Riley 15.0/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Riley40.0
21
PEN1576.6
25
Riley 40.0/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Riley3.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Post Contact Metres
548.9per game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Go Media Stadium0.0(1)-7.4
Everywhere else7.4(7)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games6.5(8)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-0.6
Avg diff %
-3%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-01CBRTom Starling12.910-22%
08-01CBREthan Strange14.620+37%
08-01CBRMatty Nicholson15.513-16%
08-01CBRDaine Laurie13.921+51%
07-23PARHarrison Edwards13.014+8%
07-23PARJack De Belin15.910-37%
07-23PARRonald Volkman15.624+54%
07-23PARJoash Papalii15.60-100%
Similar = season average within ±2.3 of Riley's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5