• 20.6 baseline — his last 8 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• −1.3 opponent leak — they concede 1576.6/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 26: 77 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.