26.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 27.1 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 25.8
+2.6 opponent leak — they concede 1851.3/game vs a 1686.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 31.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 97 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o27.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Sonivs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
27.1
13
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Soni 27.1/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
22
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Soni 0.6/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
16.8
51
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Soni 16.8/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
44
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Soni 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
57
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Soni 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
43
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Soni 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
25
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Soni 0.1/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.4
6
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Soni 3.4/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Soni27.1
13
GLD1851.3
94
Soni 27.1/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Soni0.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Run Metres
1851.3per game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium31.0(3)+7.5
Everywhere else23.5(45)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)12.0(1)-12.2
Dry games24.2(47)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs GLD · Run Metres
Avg diff
+4.2
Avg diff %
+15%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-01WARLuke Metcalf23.70-100%
07-19MANJake Simpkin25.622-14%
07-12MELTrent Toelau29.90-100%
06-20PENFreddy Lussick26.735+31%
06-06BRIThomas Duffy23.346+97%
06-06BRIBen Hunt25.333+31%
05-23MANJake Simpkin25.634+33%
05-02CBRJayden Brailey30.674+142%
Similar = season average within ±4.1 of Soni's. Computed from this app's own records.