8.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.8 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.8
+0.8 opponent leak — they concede 594.4/game vs a 545.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 5.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 20 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Post Contact Metres
594.4per game · league avg 545.7
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Allianz Stadium6.0(2)-3.5
Everywhere else9.5(16)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)13.3(3)+5.1
Dry games8.3(15)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PAR · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+8.1
Avg diff %
+92%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-11SYDDaly Cherry-Evans9.50-100%
07-05MANJamal Fogarty8.55-41%
07-05MANJake Simpkin8.323+177%
06-13CBREthan Sanders9.627+181%
06-13CBRVena Patuki-Case8.333+300%
06-13CBROwen Pattie8.913+46%
06-13CBRJayden Brailey9.926+163%
05-30NEWHarrison Graham8.39+9%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Ashton's. Computed from this app's own records.