• 13.7 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 336.7/game vs a 344.7 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 11.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.