• 2.3 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 181.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
• +1.4 at this ground — averages 3.7 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 8.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 26: 9 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.