• 2.8 baseline — his last 9 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 601.3/game vs a 545.7 league average
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 14 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.