• 23.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 18.7 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 30.8
• −1.9 opponent leak — they concede 1550.3/game vs a 1687.8 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 25: 111 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.