48.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 46.0 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 53.2
+6.5 opponent leak — they concede 618.4/game vs a 545.7 league average
−9.5 at this ground — averages 39.4 there (24 gm)
vs them: averages 36.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o46.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Keanovs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
201.1
100
Run Metresfavorable
75
1785.8
Keano 201.1/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1690.9
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.7
97
Tackle Breaksfavorable
94
36.5
Keano 4.7/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.3
9
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
Keano 3.3/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
52
Triesneutral
81
4.8
Keano 0.1/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
90
Try Assistsfavorable
88
4.1
Keano 0.6/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
95
Line Breaksfavorable
75
6.0
Keano 0.8/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.5
99
Offloadsfavorable
75
10.3
Keano 2.5/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
46.0
84
Post Contact Metresfavorable
100
618.4
Keano 46.0/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 545.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Keano201.1
100
NQL1785.8
75
Keano 201.1/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1690.9
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Keano4.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Post Contact Metres
618.4per game · league avg 545.7
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium39.4(24)-3.7
Everywhere else43.1(27)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)55.5(2)+14.7
Dry games40.8(49)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+3.2
Avg diff %
+8%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDJojo Fifita45.369+52%
08-06GLDMoeaki Fotuaika40.147+17%
08-06GLDBeau Fermor50.957+12%
08-06GLDDean Ieremia44.246+4%
07-30SYDSpencer Leniu39.345+15%
07-30SYDSiua Wong49.541-17%
07-30SYDJames Tedesco47.211-77%
07-30SYDNat Butcher45.772+57%
Similar = season average within ±6.9 of Keano's. Computed from this app's own records.