Only 1 game in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
40.5+40.0 vs your line
45.5 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
−5.0 opponent leak — they concede 1504.1/game vs a 1687.8 league average
vs them: averages 12.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Michaelvs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
0.0
0
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1504.1
Michael 0.0/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
28.6
Michael 0.0/game
CRO concedes 28.6/game · league avg 32.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tacklesneutral
81
352.1
Michael 0.0/game
CRO concedes 352.1/game · league avg 344.7
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Michael 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Michael 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
31
4.5
Michael 0.0/game
CRO concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Michael 0.0/game
CRO concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
466.4
Michael 0.0/game
CRO concedes 466.4/game · league avg 544.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Michael0.0
0
CRO1504.1
0
Michael 0.0/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Michael0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Run Metres
1504.1per game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Run Metres
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else50.0(50)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)32.3(4)-19.3
Dry games51.5(46)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Run Metres
Avg diff
+0.3
Avg diff %
+60%
Hit rate
1/5
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-26MANOnitoni Large0.000%
07-26MANNicholas Lenaz0.52+300%
06-13WARJason Salalilo0.000%
06-13WARKayliss Fatialofa0.000%
06-07SGINathan Lawson0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Michael's. Computed from this app's own records.