4.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.2 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.1
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 195.2/game vs a 185.9 league average
vs them: averages 2.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o4.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Va'avs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
41.4
22
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Va'a 41.4/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
20
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Va'a 0.5/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.1
39
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Va'a 13.1/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Va'a 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Va'a 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
34
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Va'a 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
20
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Va'a 0.1/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
16.6
32
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Va'a 16.6/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Va'a41.4
22
GLD1851.3
94
Va'a 41.4/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Va'a0.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Runs
195.2per game · league avg 185.9
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At Cbus Super Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else3.7(15)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-3.9
Dry games3.9(14)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs GLD · Runs
Avg diff
+0.6
Avg diff %
+18%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLKai O'Donnell4.98+63%
08-06NQLMatthew Lodge5.60-100%
08-06NQLSam McIntyre4.90-100%
08-06NQLSoni Luke3.45+48%
08-01WARChanel Harris-Tavita4.810+107%
08-01WARWayde Egan5.48+50%
08-01WARSam Healey3.46+74%
08-01WARRiley Price5.050%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Va'a's. Computed from this app's own records.