3.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.6 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.1
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 175.7/game vs a 185.9 league average
+6.4 at this ground — averages 10 there (5 gm)
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o2.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Moalavs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
19.0
9
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Moala 19.0/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
13
Tackle Breaksneutral
81
34.4
Moala 0.3/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
1
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Moala 0.4/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Moala 0.0/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Moala 0.0/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
38
4.7
Moala 0.0/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
27
Offloadsneutral
69
10.2
Moala 0.1/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.9
11
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Moala 5.9/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Moala19.0
9
WAR1543.0
13
Moala 19.0/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Moala0.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Runs
175.7per game · league avg 185.9
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Go Media Stadium10.0(5)+8.0
Everywhere else2.0(9)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-5.2
Dry games5.2(13)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs WAR · Runs
Avg diff
-0.4
Avg diff %
+2%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENJack Cole1.67+328%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick3.21-68%
08-01GLDJaylan De Groot4.10-100%
08-01GLDSam Verrills1.40-100%
07-25CBYLipoi Hopoi2.45+110%
07-25CBYSean O'Sullivan2.80-100%
07-25CBYBailey Hayward2.13+43%
07-25CBYJed Reardon1.50-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Moala's. Computed from this app's own records.