4.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.1 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.5
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186/game vs a 185.9 league average
−0.0 at this ground — averages 4.6 there (11 gm)
vs them: averages 4.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲venue ▼projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o4.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Joshvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
36.9
19
Run Metresneutral
75
1785.8
Josh 36.9/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1686.6
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
22
Tackle Breaksneutral
94
36.5
Josh 0.5/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.5
56
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
Josh 18.5/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
81
4.8
Josh 0.0/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
49
Try Assistsneutral
88
4.1
Josh 0.1/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.0
Josh 0.0/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
77
Offloadsfavorable
75
10.3
Josh 0.7/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.7
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
16.9
32
Post Contact Metresneutral
100
618.4
Josh 16.9/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 544.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Josh36.9
19
NQL1785.8
75
Josh 36.9/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1686.6
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Josh0.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Runs
186.0per game · league avg 185.9
#8 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At Cbus Super Stadium4.6(11)+0.4
Everywhere else4.3(12)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)5.5(2)+1.2
Dry games4.3(21)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Runs
Avg diff
+2.2
Avg diff %
+39%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDJaylan De Groot4.111+170%
08-06GLDLachlan Ilias4.40-100%
08-06GLDOliver Pascoe5.13-41%
07-30SYDTommy Talau5.121+312%
07-30SYDReece Robson5.47+29%
07-30SYDEgan Butcher4.910+105%
07-25BRILuke Gale3.50-100%
07-25BRIBilly Walters2.71-63%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Josh's. Computed from this app's own records.