• 29.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 26.3 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 34.4
• −1.3 opponent leak — they concede 520.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 40.2 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.