8.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.0 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.0
−0.4 opponent leak — they concede 175.7/game vs a 185.9 league average
vs them: averages 7.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o8.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Prestonvs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
66.1
38
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Preston 66.1/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
36
Tackle Breaksneutral
81
34.4
Preston 0.9/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
23.4
71
Tacklesfavorable
94
365.4
Preston 23.4/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Preston 0.0/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Preston 0.0/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
38
4.7
Preston 0.0/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
54
Offloadsneutral
69
10.2
Preston 0.4/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.6
46
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Preston 24.6/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Preston66.1
38
WAR1543.0
13
Preston 66.1/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Preston0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Runs
175.7per game · league avg 185.9
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Go Media Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else6.8(14)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)8.0(2)+1.4
Dry games6.6(12)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs WAR · Runs
Avg diff
-1.6
Avg diff %
-19%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENScott Sorensen8.610+17%
08-07PENBlaize Talagi9.10-100%
08-07PENLuron Patea6.86-11%
08-07PENBilly Phillips6.73-55%
08-01GLDZane Harrison7.513+73%
08-01GLDJayden Campbell9.46-36%
08-01GLDAJ Brimson9.39-3%
08-01GLDArama Hau6.74-40%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Preston's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5