0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.5
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 475.8/game vs a 544.2 league average
−0.4 at this ground — averages 0.3 there (6 gm)
vs them: averages 7.4 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SYD concede · Post Contact Metres
475.8per game · league avg 544.2
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Allianz Stadium0.3(6)-3.2
Everywhere else3.6(62)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)2.0(4)-1.4
Dry games3.4(64)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SYD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-0.5
Avg diff %
-35%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-24NEWPhoenix Crossland1.72+18%
07-24NEWKyle McCarthy0.000%
07-17MELGabriel Satrick0.000%
07-17MELJosiah Pahulu1.10-100%
05-30MELJosiah Pahulu1.10-100%
05-16NQLXavier Kerrisk0.000%
05-08GLDSam Verrills1.70-100%
04-19NEWKyle McCarthy0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jake's. Computed from this app's own records.