0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 7 0.6
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 192.3/game vs a 186.3 league average
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Paulvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
4.0
1
Run Metresneutral
50
1698.3
Paul 4.0/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksneutral
56
33.3
Paul 0.0/game
MEL concedes 33.3/game · league avg 32.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.0
18
Tacklesunfavorable
25
338.1
Paul 5.0/game
MEL concedes 338.1/game · league avg 344.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
69
4.5
Paul 0.0/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.1
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Paul 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
94
6.5
Paul 0.0/game
MEL concedes 6.5/game · league avg 5.1
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Paul 0.0/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.0
1
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
569.6
Paul 1.0/game
MEL concedes 569.6/game · league avg 545.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Paul4.0
1
MEL1698.3
50
Paul 4.0/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Paul0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Runs
192.3per game · league avg 186.3
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else0.6(7)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games0.6(7)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MEL · Runs
Avg diff
-0.3
Avg diff %
-19%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-24SOUThomas Fletcher2.05+150%
07-24SOUJayden Sullivan1.90-100%
07-17SYDTaylor Losalu1.40-100%
07-12GLDSam Verrills1.40-100%
06-27MANAaron Schoupp1.75+200%
06-27MANHugo Hart0.000%
06-21CBRVena Patuki-Case1.80-100%
06-05NEWPhoenix Crossland2.00-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Paul's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5