0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.6
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 195.2/game vs a 186.3 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 1.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Ethanvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
5.5
2
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Ethan 5.5/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
17
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Ethan 0.4/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.3
13
Tacklesunfavorable
38
340.0
Ethan 4.3/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Ethan 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Ethan 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Ethan 0.0/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Ethan 0.0/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.9
3
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Ethan 1.9/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 545.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Ethan5.5
2
GLD1851.3
94
Ethan 5.5/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Ethan0.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Runs
195.2per game · league avg 186.3
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At Cbus Super Stadium1.0(1)+0.1
Everywhere else0.9(29)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-1.0
Dry games1.0(29)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs GLD · Runs
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
+71%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-26SGILyhkan King-Togia2.25+127%
07-19MANNicholas Lenaz0.30-100%
07-19MANAaron Schoupp1.70-100%
07-12MELJosiah Pahulu0.32+700%
07-12MELJack Hetherington2.20-100%
06-26CBYBailey Hayward2.15+138%
06-26CBYAlekolasimi Jones2.10-100%
06-20PENSione Fonua0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Ethan's. Computed from this app's own records.