Only 1 game in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
2.9+2.4 vs your line
2.9 baseline — his last 7 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 352.1/game vs a 344.7 league average
vs them: averages 2.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Nathanvs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
0.0
0
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1504.1
Nathan 0.0/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
28.6
Nathan 0.0/game
CRO concedes 28.6/game · league avg 32.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tacklesneutral
81
352.1
Nathan 0.0/game
CRO concedes 352.1/game · league avg 344.7
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Nathan 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Nathan 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
31
4.5
Nathan 0.0/game
CRO concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Nathan 0.0/game
CRO concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
466.4
Nathan 0.0/game
CRO concedes 466.4/game · league avg 544.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Nathan0.0
0
CRO1504.1
0
Nathan 0.0/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Nathan0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Tackles
352.1per game · league avg 344.7
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else2.9(7)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games2.9(7)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs CRO · Tackles
Avg diff
-0.4
Avg diff %
-28%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-26MANOnitoni Large0.000%
07-26MANBlake Wilson1.30-100%
07-11DOLBrian Pouniu0.90-100%
07-04BRIHayze Perham1.13+175%
06-21SYDRex Bassingthwaighte1.50-100%
06-13WARJason Salalilo0.000%
06-13WARKayliss Fatialofa0.000%
05-29MANBlake Wilson1.30-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Nathan's. Computed from this app's own records.