13.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 13.3 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 13.0
+0.4 opponent leak — they concede 354.8/game vs a 344.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 28.8 over 11 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o13.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Blakevs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
54.1
31
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1511.1
Blake 54.1/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
29.1
Blake 0.0/game
CRO concedes 29.1/game · league avg 32.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.3
40
Tacklesneutral
88
354.8
Blake 13.3/game
CRO concedes 354.8/game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Blake 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Blake 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
38
4.7
Blake 0.0/game
CRO concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Blake 0.0/game
CRO concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.6
36
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
469.6
Blake 18.6/game
CRO concedes 469.6/game · league avg 544.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Blake54.1
31
CRO1511.1
0
Blake 54.1/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Blake0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Tackles
354.8per game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium11.0(2)-14.7
Everywhere else25.7(117)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)29.2(13)+4.3
Dry games25.0(106)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Tackles
Avg diff
+4.9
Avg diff %
+39%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09SGIJacob Halangahu14.326+82%
08-09SGIJosh Kerr14.90-100%
08-09SGIValentine Holmes12.316+31%
08-02SOUAshton Ward14.314-2%
08-02SOUJohn Radel12.333+169%
08-02SOUJack Wighton12.524+92%
07-26MANReuben Garrick12.53-76%
07-26MANJoey Walsh13.830+118%
Similar = season average within ±2.0 of Blake's. Computed from this app's own records.