• 22.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 23.6 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 20.2
• +2.2 opponent leak — they concede 598.3/game vs a 544.2 league average
• −5.5 at this ground — averages 16.8 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 10.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 56 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.