31.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 28.8 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 34.8
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 539.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
−2.7 at this ground — averages 28.5 there (25 gm)
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 64 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o28.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.4°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Nathanvs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
96.6
60
Run Metresneutral
38
1652.5
Nathan 96.6/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
37
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Nathan 0.9/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
19.4
60
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Nathan 19.4/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.9
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
44
4.0
Nathan 0.0/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
49
Try Assistsneutral
56
3.5
Nathan 0.1/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Nathan 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
19
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Nathan 0.1/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.8
54
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Nathan 28.8/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Nathan96.6
60
DOL1652.5
38
Nathan 96.6/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Nathan0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Post Contact Metres
539.6per game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At 4 Pines Park28.5(25)-4.5
Everywhere else33.0(73)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)24.7(6)-7.7
Dry games32.3(92)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-6.3
Avg diff %
-22%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIReece Walsh25.718-30%
07-31SGIDylan Egan31.329-7%
07-31SGIHamish Stewart32.534+5%
07-19NQLJaxon Purdue28.712-58%
07-19NQLZac Laybutt27.429+6%
07-19NQLCoen Hess30.520-34%
07-19NQLGriffin Neame28.911-62%
07-11CROBilly Burns26.928+4%
Similar = season average within ±4.3 of Nathan's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown28.5