12.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.8 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 13.7
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 181.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
−1.0 at this ground — averages 11.6 there (25 gm)
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
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Splits · o11.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.1°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Nathanvs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
96.6
59
Run Metresneutral
38
1652.5
Nathan 96.6/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
37
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Nathan 0.9/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
19.4
60
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Nathan 19.4/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
38
4.0
Nathan 0.0/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
48
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.5
Nathan 0.1/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Nathan 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
19
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Nathan 0.1/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.8
54
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Nathan 28.8/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.6
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Nathan96.6
59
DOL1652.5
38
Nathan 96.6/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Nathan0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Runs
181.6per game · league avg 185.9
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At 4 Pines Park11.6(25)-0.6
Everywhere else12.2(73)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)10.2(6)-2.0
Dry games12.2(92)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Runs
Avg diff
-1.6
Avg diff %
-12%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIKotoni Staggs12.89-29%
08-08BRIDeine Mariner12.68-37%
08-08BRIJordan Riki11.911-7%
08-08BRIGehamat Shibasaki12.02-83%
08-08BRIXavier Willison13.315+13%
07-31SGIHamish Stewart11.312+7%
07-31SGILoko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga10.616+50%
07-31SGIMoses Suli11.310-11%
Similar = season average within ±1.8 of Nathan's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5